From Balance to Imbalance: The Evolutionary Mechanism of Australia's Strategy Towards China--A Neoclassical Realist Interpretation

Abstract

Australia and China are two important countries in the Pacific region, and Australia's strategy toward China has been changing in recent years, and the reasons behind such changes are worth considering. Using the analytical framework of neoclassical realism, with the degree of Sino-U.S. competition as the system variable and strategic preferences as the unit variable, three characteristics of Australia's policy toward China since 2000 are analyzed in turn: consistent cooperation with the United States in the military security field; a balanced strategic policy dominated until 2017; and a policy of containing China starting in late 2017. Compared with other models, the model has stronger explanatory power for the evolution of Australia's policy toward China over long time periods.